2016 Review & 2017 Outlook: The Story of Pencil
2nd QUALITY
“now and then, I have to stop writing and use a sharpner. That makes the pencil suffer a little, but afterwards, he’s much sharper. So you, too, must learn to bear certain pains and sorrows, because they will make you a better person.”
The Investment team here doesn’t just sit in front of computer or talking to company management and then hope we will understand companies business.
Many times, we have to deal with the sun’s heat, walk under the heavy rain, hear a loud noise in factory, step on a dirty soil, smell a stingy plants, and sometimes we have skip a meal, we do all of that things, just to make sure that we will invested in a fundamentally sound companies.
For example when we do a research on PT KMI WIRE & CABLE (KBLI.IJ), we learning cable classification, melting point, and many electiricity things !, learning such things not easy for this team, since none of us has electricity background. We expect KBLI net profit surge above IDR 300 billion in 2016.
Waited until late of night to get a picture that confirmed our thesis about property oversupply at Serpong area, that is why we maintain our bearish view on property sector throughout 2H 2016.
Queueing and joining the crowd in many of Ramayana stores, (sometimes it’s hard to breathe there since many people whenever they held an event ), but
we are happy RALS.IJ share price appreciation is enough to inject an oxygen to our portfolio.
We also learning to become a weatherman when it comes to analyze plantation stocks, we expect El Nino to brew a “bullish wind” to palm oil price, but since we want to know more about El Nino, we then learned about SOI indicator, Madden Julian Oscillation, Modoki El Nino, and many more things. (Don’t worry
if you not familiar or even don’t understand that terms, we also don’t understand at first)
We went to North Lampung to observe shrimp companies production (CPRO.IJ), the road was less traveled. The local driver we used, admitted he once chased by robber group there, so he must drive as fast as he can. Not only that, there is no phone signal along the way, so when we decided to go there, we already know the risk !, yet our sacrifice bear a sweet fruit because we reap around 50% gain from that shrimp company stock.
We believe by doing all of “dirty works” will help us to move one steap ahead than most market players, that’s where we can create an alpha for all of you.
